| What was supposed to be one of the great windfalls to the Republican Party resulting from the 2010 elections was the redrawing of election districts to the benefit of the G.O.P. Now apparently this big advantage has been mitigated by a number of factors. According to political commentator Jennifer Steinhauer:"Republicans took so many seats from Democrats in 2010 that there are not many left to change hands through redistricting. As a result, Republican leaders are focusing on making sure that incumbents, especially their 87 freshmen, end up defending districts with even more Republican voters than they had in the last election, with the hope of ensuring that they maintain control of the House for the long term." Moreover, Michael McDonald, a senior fellow and redistricting expert at the Brookings Institution observed: "The overwhelming success of Republicans in 2010 actually poses a problem for them. They can't go much farther than they are, but that doesn't mean they can't use redistricting to shore up their incumbents and those who seem most vulnerable."
Beyond the aforementioned, the increasing demographic shift towards a population made up increasingly of people of color bodes ill for the G.O.P. Again quoting Ms. Steinhauer: "Compounding the Republicans' problem, much of the nation's population gains have been among Hispanics, who have tended to vote Democratic, or in areas where voters tend to be less friendly to Republicans. Strict federal laws concerning areas that are dominated by minorities will also be an obstacle for the party in some states. For the first time since the Voting Rights Act was enacted in 1965, a Democrat controls the Justice Department, which enforces the law, during a redistricting year."
Another factor complicating things for Republicans is that by creating election districts so fully packed with Republican voters, the G.O.P. may actually be increasing the amount of primary fights that go along with each election: "Then there are states that have not lost or gained seats. In many of them, boundaries are likely to be moved in the name of shoring up incumbents for the party in power. Consider Minnesota, where Republicans are trying to protect their freshman congressman, Chip Cravaack, by making his deeply Democratic district less so. In some cases, including Mr. Cravaack's, efforts to shore up marginal districts for Republicans could have an unintended effect, because having more Republican voters increases the likelihood of a primary fight. The more the district leans right, the more the concern for the incumbent becomes the primary challenge said Chris Jankowski, president of the Republican State Leadership Committee. But the broader Republican strategy is to maximize gains for your party within the extent that law allows."
Thus what was considered to have been a great windfall for the Republican Party in 2010 may have the net effect of doing nothing but complicatining the Party's electoral mechanics. In the end the G.O.P. may have been sorry for gaining what they had wished for in the first place.
sjg
6/13/11
Source:
For Republicans, Redistricting Offers Few Gains; http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06... |
